Merrion Lodge, 148 Merrion Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, D04 K6P0
18 homes sold nearby. See what they went for — and what to bid on this one.
€3,750,000 · 4 Bed · 4 Bath · 331m² · Semi-D
Market Position
At the Upper End of Local Sales
At €3,750,000, this home is priced well above what similar properties sold for in this area. Overpayment risk is high at this level. A structured bid strategy is critical.
18 closed sales nearby · 11mo recency · High confidence · Property Price Register
Sources: PPR, SEAI, OPW, planning records.
How this is calculated
We search the Property Price Register for closed sales near this property — matching by location, beds, property type, and where available, floor area (±20%). This gives us a set of genuinely comparable transactions.
Each sale is then time-adjusted to today using local price trends, so a sale from 18 months ago is inflated (or deflated) to reflect current market conditions. Where floor area is known, sales are also size-adjusted — a 90m² sale is normalised to what it would have sold for at this property's size. This means the figures you see aren't raw prices — they're what those same homes would likely sell for today, at this size.
Your bid strategy (opening offer, sealed bid range, walk-away ceiling) is then derived from the statistical distribution of these adjusted sales — with conservative safety margins applied when data is thin or dated.
Every figure comes from actual government-recorded sale prices. No asking prices, no agent estimates, no automated valuations.
Full methodology →Opening
Start here
Best & Final
If multiple offers
Ceiling
Do not exceed
Before you bid €3,750,000, get your opening offer, best-and-final range, and walk-away ceiling.
Instant access · No subscription · Refund if not useful
Overbidding by 5% could cost €187,500 before interest.
Analysing 625,000+ Property Price Register transactions since 2010.
What your report includes
Before You Bid
Before you bid €3,750,000, see this.
Here is what the data says about this property.
Will This Go Over Asking?
above asking
Probability of a sale above asking based on local bidding patterns.
Am I Overpaying?
local sales
Where the asking price sits in the verified local transaction distribution.
Negotiation Leverage Score
How much negotiation leverage you have based on market conditions.
These signals interact — full analysis in report.
€187,500
That's what overbidding by just 5% on a €3,750,000 home costs you — before interest.
A €19 check before a €3,750,000 commitment.
Get Your Exact Bid Numbers for This Property
You've seen the market signals. Now get the exact numbers: where to open, how far to go, and when to walk away.
Built from 625,000+ verified Irish property transactions
Based on 18 verified local sales · High confidence
Instant access · No subscription · Refund if not useful
Price Distribution Analysis
18 verified closed sales within 1.5km · 18 months. Size-adjusted for similar homes (type match, beds ±1, size ±20%).
Asking price is positioned above the median of comparable sales. This places the property outside the core transaction band where most comparable homes closed. Median anchored to size-similar transactions.
This chart shows where the asking price sits versus recent verified closed sales. It does not show your bid strategy.Same baseline as Market Position — size-adjusted.
The chart shows the market. Your report gives the number not to exceed.
Instant access · No subscription · Refund if not useful
Local Market Momentum
Unlock to adjust radius, timespan, and comparison window.
Radius: 1.5kmTime: 18m12m vs 12mMedian transaction price per m² has decreased 20% year-on-year, based on the trailing 18-month transaction window.
Indicates softening pricing conditions. Buyers may hold stronger negotiation position.
Recent closed sales are time-adjusted to current market conditions before calculating transaction bands.
Financial Exposure · 58% Above Median
If purchased at asking, you are paying above where most similar homes sold. A defined ceiling is designed to close this gap.
If purchased at asking
€3,750,000
Above transaction median
Above Upper Range
Buying at asking would put you well above what similar homes sold for — that's elevated overpayment risk.
Statistical Confidence · High
18
Transactions Analysed
Within 1.5km
11 months
Data Freshness
Most recent sale age
±20%
Price Spread
How much prices vary
High
Confidence Level
Recent sale prices in this area are closely clustered, which means the data is reliable and the bid strategy is well-supported.
High data density supports precise entry positioning.
PPR closed sales · size & time adjusted · no asking prices used
Supporting Evidence · 18 Transactions
Size and time adjustments applied before percentile computation.
| Address | Sold | Date | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 Ailesbury Rd, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Dublin 4, Dublin | 2025-04-11 | 435m² | |
| 5 Ailesbury Park, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Dublin 4, Dublin | 2025-03-19 | 220m² |
Transactions within a 1.5km radius and 18-month window.
Methodology
Closed sales time-adjusted to current market · size-weighted where floor area available · no asking prices or agent estimates used.
How adjustments work
- —Older sales inflated to current market level so stale data doesn't skew bands
- —Similar-sized properties weighted more heavily where floor area is known
- —Local price trends factored in when sufficient data exists; no artificial uplift otherwise
- —All figures from registered closed sales only — no asking prices, no agent estimates
Local Market Notes
Property Quality
BER Investment: Upgrading from the C2 BER rating to a B2 could cost approximately €10,000-€15,000 and potentially increase the property's value by €20,000-€30,000, offering a good return on investment.
Spacious Living: With 331m² of space and 4 bedrooms, this property offers generous accommodation, exceeding the typical size expectations for many Dublin properties and aligning with high-value market demands.
Value Optimization: The asking price of €3,750,000, very close to the estimated value of €3,772,679.5, indicates that the property is priced competitively for its size and features.
Hypothesis: Given the premium location, a strategic investment in upgrading the BER rating to A-rated could unlock an additional 2-3% in value and attract a wider pool of discerning buyers, particularly those focused on long-term operational cost savings.
Amenities
Exceptional Connectivity: Merrion Lodge is served by multiple Dublin Bus routes including 7, 46A, and 145, and is within a short walk to the Sandymount DART station, offering excellent commuting options.
Prime Educational Hub: The property is in close proximity to prestigious educational institutions such as St. Mary's College, Gonzaga College, and University College Dublin (UCD), enhancing its appeal to families and professionals.
Vibrant Local Life: Residents have easy access to a wealth of amenities including Herbert Park for recreation, numerous cafes and restaurants on Merrion Road and Baggot Street, and convenient shopping at The Merrion Centre.
Hypothesis: The concentration of high-value amenities and exceptional transport links in Ballsbridge, combined with the ongoing regeneration of the Docklands area, creates a strong gravitational pull for affluent buyers, suggesting that properties here will continue to command a significant location premium exceeding 7% annually.
Derived from nearby closed-sale patterns.
Built on verified Irish public data
Property Price Register
625,000+ verified closed sales
SEAI
Building energy ratings & floor area
Office of Public Works
Flood zones, events & study areas
MyPlan.ie
Planning applications nationwide
Common Questions
Bid strategy figures are derived from the Property Price Register — Ireland's official record of closed residential sale prices, verified through stamp duty. Floor area data comes from the SEAI BER register. Flood exposure is cross-referenced against OPW flood extent mapping (CFRAM fluvial + NCFHM coastal) and historical flood events. Planning activity is sourced from the National Planning Application Database via MyPlan.ie — merged Local Authority planning registers from the Department of Housing. No asking prices, no agent estimates, no automated valuations.