23 Chestnut Grove, Castlebar, Castlebar, Co. Mayo, F23 XD61
18 homes sold nearby. See what they went for — and what to bid on this one.
€280,000 · 3 Bed · 2 Bath · 88m² · Semi-D
Market Position
At the Upper End of Local Sales
At €280,000, this home is priced above what similar properties sold for — buyers at this level tend to overpay without a defined ceiling.
18 closed sales nearby · 11mo recency · High confidence · Property Price Register
Sources: PPR, SEAI, OPW, planning records.
How this is calculated
We search the Property Price Register for closed sales near this property — matching by location, beds, property type, and where available, floor area (±20%). This gives us a set of genuinely comparable transactions.
Each sale is then time-adjusted to today using local price trends, so a sale from 18 months ago is inflated (or deflated) to reflect current market conditions. Where floor area is known, sales are also size-adjusted — a 90m² sale is normalised to what it would have sold for at this property's size. This means the figures you see aren't raw prices — they're what those same homes would likely sell for today, at this size.
Your bid strategy (opening offer, sealed bid range, walk-away ceiling) is then derived from the statistical distribution of these adjusted sales — with conservative safety margins applied when data is thin or dated.
Every figure comes from actual government-recorded sale prices. No asking prices, no agent estimates, no automated valuations.
Full methodology →Opening
Start here
Best & Final
If multiple offers
Ceiling
Do not exceed
Before you bid €280,000, get your opening offer, best-and-final range, and walk-away ceiling.
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Overbidding by 5% could cost €14,000 before interest.
Analysing 625,000+ Property Price Register transactions since 2010.
What your report includes
Before You Bid
Before you bid €280,000, see this.
Here is what the data says about this property.
Will This Go Over Asking?
above asking
Probability of a sale above asking based on local bidding patterns.
Am I Overpaying?
local sales
Where the asking price sits in the verified local transaction distribution.
Negotiation Leverage Score
How much negotiation leverage you have based on market conditions.
€14,000
That's what overbidding by just 5% on a €280,000 home costs you — before interest.
A €19 check before a €280,000 commitment.
Get Your Exact Bid Numbers for This Property
You've seen the market signals. Now get the exact numbers: where to open, how far to go, and when to walk away.
Built from 625,000+ verified Irish property transactions
Based on 18 verified local sales · High confidence
Instant access · No subscription · Refund if not useful
Price Distribution Analysis
18 verified closed sales within 1.5km · 18 months. Size-adjusted for similar homes (type match, beds ±1, size ±20%).
Asking price is positioned above the median of comparable sales. This places the property outside the core transaction band where most comparable homes closed. Median anchored to size-similar transactions.
This chart shows where the asking price sits versus recent verified closed sales. It does not show your bid strategy.Same baseline as Market Position — size-adjusted.
The chart shows the market. Your report gives the number not to exceed.
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Local Market Momentum
Unlock to adjust radius, timespan, and comparison window.
Radius: 1.5kmTime: 18m12m vs 12mMedian transaction price per m² has increased 1.6% year-on-year, based on the trailing 18-month transaction window.
Local pricing conditions remain stable. No significant directional pressure.
Recent closed sales are time-adjusted to current market conditions before calculating transaction bands.
Financial Exposure · 22% Above Median
If purchased at asking, you are paying above where most similar homes sold. A defined ceiling is designed to close this gap.
If purchased at asking
€280,000
Above transaction median
Above Upper Range
Buying at asking would put you well above what similar homes sold for — that's elevated overpayment risk.
Statistical Confidence · High
18
Transactions Analysed
Within 1.5km
11 months
Data Freshness
Most recent sale age
±10%
Price Spread
How much prices vary
High
Confidence Level
Recent sale prices in this area are closely clustered, which means the data is reliable and the bid strategy is well-supported.
High data density supports precise entry positioning.
PPR closed sales · size & time adjusted · no asking prices used
Supporting Evidence · 18 Transactions
Size and time adjustments applied before percentile computation.
| Address | Sold | Date | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Chestnut Grove, Castlebar, Mayo, Mayo | 2025-08-15 | 93m² | |
| 5 Chestnut Grove, Castlebar, Mayo, Mayo | 2025-06-06 | 100m² |
Transactions within a 1.5km radius and 18-month window.
Methodology
Closed sales time-adjusted to current market · size-weighted where floor area available · no asking prices or agent estimates used.
How adjustments work
- —Older sales inflated to current market level so stale data doesn't skew bands
- —Similar-sized properties weighted more heavily where floor area is known
- —Local price trends factored in when sufficient data exists; no artificial uplift otherwise
- —All figures from registered closed sales only — no asking prices, no agent estimates
Local Market Notes
Property Quality
C1 BER Efficiency: The C1 BER rating suggests moderate energy efficiency, with estimated annual energy costs likely falling between €1,200-€1,600, which is €400-€800 higher than comparable A or B-rated properties of this size.
Space Value: With a price per square meter of €3,125 based on the estimated value and size, the property is valued at €2755 within a 1km radius, suggesting it's priced competitively for its size in the immediate micro-market.
Upgrade Potential: While not requiring urgent major renovations, upgrading the C1 BER rating to a B2 could cost an estimated €6,000-€10,000 and potentially increase the property's market value by €9,000-€14,000, offering a good return on investment.
Hypothesis: Given the C1 BER rating, a targeted investment of €3,000-€5,000 in improving insulation and ventilation could push the BER to a C2 or B3, potentially increasing its attractiveness to a wider buyer pool and improving its resale value by an estimated 3-5% without incurring the full cost of a major upgrade.
Amenities
Castlebar Connectivity: While specific bus routes and train stations are not detailed in the provided data, Castlebar, as a county town, typically offers good connectivity via Bus Éireann services and a train station connecting to major routes.
Local Services: Castlebar offers a range of amenities including primary and secondary schools such as St. Joseph's Primary School and St. Gerald's College, the Mayo General Hospital, and retail options like TF Royal Hotel & Theatre and Tesco.
Walkable Town Center: Properties in Chestnut Grove are likely within reasonable walking distance to Castlebar town center, providing access to local shops, cafes, and parks like Lough Lannagh Park.
Hypothesis: The designation of Castlebar as a key hub in the Western Region, likely supported by planned infrastructure upgrades as part of national development plans, could see the average property value within a 3km radius of the town center increase by an additional 1-2% per annum over the next five years, particularly for properties with good access to public transport and local amenities.
Derived from nearby closed-sale patterns.
Built on verified Irish public data
Property Price Register
625,000+ verified closed sales
SEAI
Building energy ratings & floor area
Office of Public Works
Flood zones, events & study areas
MyPlan.ie
Planning applications nationwide
Common Questions
Bid strategy figures are derived from the Property Price Register — Ireland's official record of closed residential sale prices, verified through stamp duty. Floor area data comes from the SEAI BER register. Flood exposure is cross-referenced against OPW flood extent mapping (CFRAM fluvial + NCFHM coastal) and historical flood events. Planning activity is sourced from the National Planning Application Database via MyPlan.ie — merged Local Authority planning registers from the Department of Housing. No asking prices, no agent estimates, no automated valuations.