Camelot, 1 Ailesbury Way, Ailesbury Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, D04 X4E3
26 homes sold nearby. See what they went for — and what to bid on this one.
€3,200,000 · 5 Bed · 4 Bath · 279m² · Semi-D
Market Position
At the Upper End of Local Sales
At €3,200,000, this home is priced well above what similar properties sold for in this area. Overpayment risk is high at this level. A structured bid strategy is critical.
26 closed sales nearby · 13mo recency · High confidence · Property Price Register
Sources: PPR, SEAI, OPW, planning records.
How this is calculated
We search the Property Price Register for closed sales near this property — matching by location, beds, property type, and where available, floor area (±20%). This gives us a set of genuinely comparable transactions.
Each sale is then time-adjusted to today using local price trends, so a sale from 18 months ago is inflated (or deflated) to reflect current market conditions. Where floor area is known, sales are also size-adjusted — a 90m² sale is normalised to what it would have sold for at this property's size. This means the figures you see aren't raw prices — they're what those same homes would likely sell for today, at this size.
Your bid strategy (opening offer, sealed bid range, walk-away ceiling) is then derived from the statistical distribution of these adjusted sales — with conservative safety margins applied when data is thin or dated.
Every figure comes from actual government-recorded sale prices. No asking prices, no agent estimates, no automated valuations.
Full methodology →Opening
Start here
Best & Final
If multiple offers
Ceiling
Do not exceed
Before you bid €3,200,000, get your opening offer, best-and-final range, and walk-away ceiling.
Instant access · No subscription · Refund if not useful
Overbidding by 5% could cost €160,000 before interest.
Analysing 625,000+ Property Price Register transactions since 2010.
What your report includes
Before You Bid
Before you bid €3,200,000, see this.
Here is what the data says about this property.
Will This Go Over Asking?
above asking
Probability of a sale above asking based on local bidding patterns.
Am I Overpaying?
local sales
Where the asking price sits in the verified local transaction distribution.
Negotiation Leverage Score
How much negotiation leverage you have based on market conditions.
€160,000
That's what overbidding by just 5% on a €3,200,000 home costs you — before interest.
A €19 check before a €3,200,000 commitment.
Get Your Exact Bid Numbers for This Property
You've seen the market signals. Now get the exact numbers: where to open, how far to go, and when to walk away.
Built from 625,000+ verified Irish property transactions
Based on 26 verified local sales · High confidence
Instant access · No subscription · Refund if not useful
Price Distribution Analysis
26 verified closed sales within 1.5km · 18 months. Size-adjusted for similar homes (type match, beds ±1, size ±20%).
Asking price is positioned above the median of comparable sales. This places the property outside the core transaction band where most comparable homes closed. Median anchored to size-similar transactions.
This chart shows where the asking price sits versus recent verified closed sales. It does not show your bid strategy.Same baseline as Market Position — size-adjusted.
The chart shows the market. Your report gives the number not to exceed.
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Local Market Momentum
Unlock to adjust radius, timespan, and comparison window.
Radius: 1.5kmTime: 18m12m vs 12mMedian transaction price per m² has decreased 1.4% year-on-year, based on the trailing 18-month transaction window.
Local pricing conditions remain stable. No significant directional pressure.
Recent closed sales are time-adjusted to current market conditions before calculating transaction bands.
Financial Exposure · 32% Above Median
If purchased at asking, you are paying above where most similar homes sold. A defined ceiling is designed to close this gap.
If purchased at asking
€3,200,000
Above transaction median
Above Upper Range
Buying at asking would put you well above what similar homes sold for — that's elevated overpayment risk.
Statistical Confidence · High
26
Transactions Analysed
Within 1.5km
13 months
Data Freshness
Most recent sale age
±20%
Price Spread
How much prices vary
High
Confidence Level
Recent sale prices in this area are closely clustered, which means the data is reliable and the bid strategy is well-supported.
High data density supports precise entry positioning.
PPR closed sales · size & time adjusted · no asking prices used
Supporting Evidence · 26 Transactions
Size and time adjustments applied before percentile computation.
| Address | Sold | Date | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Ailesbury Park, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Dublin 4, Dublin | 2025-03-19 | 220m² | |
| 7 Ailesbury Gardens, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Dublin 4, Dublin | 2025-12-12 | 202m² |
Transactions within a 1.5km radius and 18-month window.
Methodology
Closed sales time-adjusted to current market · size-weighted where floor area available · no asking prices or agent estimates used.
How adjustments work
- —Older sales inflated to current market level so stale data doesn't skew bands
- —Similar-sized properties weighted more heavily where floor area is known
- —Local price trends factored in when sufficient data exists; no artificial uplift otherwise
- —All figures from registered closed sales only — no asking prices, no agent estimates
Local Market Notes
Property Quality
Exceptional Energy Efficiency: With an excellent B2 BER rating, this property's annual energy costs are estimated to be €800-€1,200, significantly lower than the €1,800-€2,200 for a typical D-rated property of similar size, potentially saving €1,000-€1,400 annually.
Generous Living Space: This expansive 279m² semi-detached home offers nearly double the space of the average property size of 145m² sold within a 1km radius over the past 180 days, appealing to buyers seeking substantial proportions.
Superior Accommodation: Boasting 5 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms, the property offers significantly more extensive living arrangements compared to the median of 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms for properties sold within a 1km radius over the last 180 days.
Hypothesis: The property's rare combination of a high BER rating, exceptionally large footprint, and abundant bedroom/bathroom count within the exclusive Ailesbury Road area positions it as a top-tier asset, commanding a premium for its move-in ready, spacious, and efficient family-oriented design.
Amenities
Premier Transport Connectivity: The property boasts excellent transport links, being within walking distance of Lansdowne Road DART station and well-served by Dublin Bus routes including 4, 7, 7a, and 46a, offering convenient access across Dublin.
Elite Educational Proximity: An ideal location for families, with highly-regarded institutions like St. Michael's College and The Teresian School nearby, and University College Dublin easily accessible, enhancing the area's strong appeal for education.
Upscale Lifestyle & Recreation: Residents benefit from a high-quality lifestyle, with Herbert Park just a short stroll away, immediate proximity to the RDS and Aviva Stadium, and gourmet shopping options like Donnybrook Fair, all within the prestigious Ballsbridge area.
Hypothesis: The property's esteemed address on Ailesbury Road is a key driver of its premium valuation, providing unparalleled access to an concentrated array of elite educational facilities, luxury lifestyle amenities, and prime transport options that are essential for the discerning buyer in this exclusive Dublin 4 locale.
Derived from nearby closed-sale patterns.
Built on verified Irish public data
Property Price Register
625,000+ verified closed sales
SEAI
Building energy ratings & floor area
Office of Public Works
Flood zones, events & study areas
MyPlan.ie
Planning applications nationwide
Common Questions
Bid strategy figures are derived from the Property Price Register — Ireland's official record of closed residential sale prices, verified through stamp duty. Floor area data comes from the SEAI BER register. Flood exposure is cross-referenced against OPW flood extent mapping (CFRAM fluvial + NCFHM coastal) and historical flood events. Planning activity is sourced from the National Planning Application Database via MyPlan.ie — merged Local Authority planning registers from the Department of Housing. No asking prices, no agent estimates, no automated valuations.