18 Alder Lodge, Farmleigh Avenue, Farmleigh Woods, Castleknock, D15 N242
40 homes sold nearby. See what they went for — and what to bid on this one.
€1,500,000 · 3 Bed · 3 Bath · 220m² · Apartment
Market Position
At the Upper End of Local Sales
At €1,500,000, this home is priced well above what similar properties sold for in this area. Overpayment risk is high at this level. A structured bid strategy is critical.
40 closed sales nearby · 10mo recency · High confidence · Property Price Register
Sources: PPR, SEAI, OPW, planning records.
How this is calculated
We search the Property Price Register for closed sales near this property — matching by location, beds, property type, and where available, floor area (±20%). This gives us a set of genuinely comparable transactions.
Each sale is then time-adjusted to today using local price trends, so a sale from 18 months ago is inflated (or deflated) to reflect current market conditions. Where floor area is known, sales are also size-adjusted — a 90m² sale is normalised to what it would have sold for at this property's size. This means the figures you see aren't raw prices — they're what those same homes would likely sell for today, at this size.
Your bid strategy (opening offer, sealed bid range, walk-away ceiling) is then derived from the statistical distribution of these adjusted sales — with conservative safety margins applied when data is thin or dated.
Every figure comes from actual government-recorded sale prices. No asking prices, no agent estimates, no automated valuations.
Full methodology →Opening
Start here
Best & Final
If multiple offers
Ceiling
Do not exceed
Before you bid €1,500,000, get your opening offer, best-and-final range, and walk-away ceiling.
Instant access · No subscription · Refund if not useful
Overbidding by 5% could cost €75,000 before interest.
Analysing 625,000+ Property Price Register transactions since 2010.
What your report includes
Before You Bid
Before you bid €1,500,000, see this.
Here is what the data says about this property.
Will This Go Over Asking?
above asking
Probability of a sale above asking based on local bidding patterns.
Am I Overpaying?
local sales
Where the asking price sits in the verified local transaction distribution.
Negotiation Leverage Score
How much negotiation leverage you have based on market conditions.
€75,000
That's what overbidding by just 5% on a €1,500,000 home costs you — before interest.
A €19 check before a €1,500,000 commitment.
Get Your Exact Bid Numbers for This Property
You've seen the market signals. Now get the exact numbers: where to open, how far to go, and when to walk away.
Built from 625,000+ verified Irish property transactions
Based on 40 verified local sales · High confidence
Instant access · No subscription · Refund if not useful
From €19 for your strategy on a €1,500,000 home. Independent valuations start at €150 — same data source, fraction of the cost.
Price Distribution Analysis
40 verified closed sales within 1.5km · 18 months.
Asking price is positioned above the median transaction level. This places the property outside the core transaction band where most comparable homes closed.
This chart shows where the asking price sits versus recent verified closed sales. It does not show your bid strategy.Same baseline as Market Position.
The chart shows the market. Your report gives the number not to exceed.
Instant access · No subscription · Refund if not useful
Local Market Momentum
Unlock to adjust radius, timespan, and comparison window.
Radius: 1.5kmTime: 18m12m vs 12mMedian transaction price per m² has increased 5.5% year-on-year, based on the trailing 18-month transaction window.
Indicates sustained upward pricing pressure in the local market.
Recent closed sales are time-adjusted to current market conditions before calculating transaction bands.
Financial Exposure · 233% Above Median
If purchased at asking, you are paying above where most similar homes sold. A defined ceiling is designed to close this gap.
If purchased at asking
€1,500,000
Above transaction median
Above Upper Range
Buying at asking would put you well above what similar homes sold for — that's elevated overpayment risk.
Statistical Confidence · High
40
Transactions Analysed
Within 1.5km
10 months
Data Freshness
Most recent sale age
±20%
Price Spread
How much prices vary
High
Confidence Level
Recent sale prices in this area are closely clustered, which means the data is reliable and the bid strategy is well-supported.
High data density supports precise entry positioning.
PPR closed sales · size & time adjusted · no asking prices used
Supporting Evidence · 40 Transactions
Size and time adjustments applied before percentile computation.
| Address | Sold | Date | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Maple Lodge, Farmleigh Woods, Castleknock, Dublin 15, Dublin | 2025-01-02 | 207m² | |
| 1 Cedar Lodge, Farmleigh Ave, Farmleigh Woods Dublin 15, Dublin 15, Dublin | 2025-05-11 | 81m² |
Transactions within a 1.5km radius and 18-month window.
Methodology
Closed sales time-adjusted to current market · size-weighted where floor area available · no asking prices or agent estimates used.
How adjustments work
- —Older sales inflated to current market level so stale data doesn't skew bands
- —Similar-sized properties weighted more heavily where floor area is known
- —Local price trends factored in when sufficient data exists; no artificial uplift otherwise
- —All figures from registered closed sales only — no asking prices, no agent estimates
Local Market Notes
Property Quality
BER C1 Opportunity: With a BER rating of C1, upgrading to a B2 could cost an estimated €8,000-€12,000 but potentially increase property value by €15,000-€20,000, offering a strong return on investment.
Details
- Exceptional Size for Apartment: At 220.0m², this apartment is significantly larger than the average property size of 84.34m² within a 1km radius, offering a rare spaciousness for apartment living.
- Premium Fixtures and Finishes: The 3 bathrooms and 3 bedrooms offer a high specification compared to the median of 2 bathrooms and 2 bedrooms within a 1km radius, indicating superior internal configuration.
- Hypothesis: The substantial size and high number of bathrooms/bedrooms for an apartment at this location suggest a target market of downsizers or affluent individuals seeking house-like proportions, which, if paired with a higher BER rating, could command an even greater price premium of 5-10%.
Amenities
Transport Links: While specific bus routes and stations are not provided in the data for Farmleigh Woods, its D15 postcode generally benefits from access to Dublin Bus routes serving the city centre and surrounding areas, and proximity to N4/M50 for road connectivity.
Details
- Local Conveniences: Castleknock village, a short drive away, offers a range of amenities including shops, restaurants, and services, alongside good educational facilities like Castleknock College and Mount Sackville School.
- Green Space Access: The property's location within Farmleigh Woods implies immediate access to landscaped grounds, with Phoenix Park, one of Europe's largest enclosed urban parks, also being a significant nearby lifestyle amenity offering extensive recreational opportunities.
- Hypothesis: The development of new infrastructure or public transport links, such as a potential extension of the Luas or improved bus services in the D15 area, could significantly enhance the connectivity of Farmleigh Woods, further boosting property values by an estimated 5-7% within 3-5 years.
Derived from nearby closed-sale patterns.
Built on verified Irish public data
Property Price Register
625,000+ verified closed sales
SEAI
Building energy ratings & floor area
Office of Public Works
Flood zones, events & study areas
MyPlan.ie
Planning applications nationwide
Common Questions
Bid strategy figures are derived from the Property Price Register — Ireland's official record of closed residential sale prices, verified through stamp duty. Floor area data comes from the SEAI BER register. Flood exposure is cross-referenced against OPW CFRAM flood extent mapping and historical flood events. Planning activity is sourced from national planning application records via MyPlan.ie. No asking prices, no agent estimates, no automated valuations.